KVUE
Kenvue Inc.
$17.77
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 37.6% above fair value
You pay
$17.77
Bear
$10.64
Fair
$12.92
Bull
$15.20
Bear
$10.64
-40.1%
$0.76 × 14x P/E
Fair
$12.92
-27.3%
$0.76 × 17x P/E
Bull
$15.20
-14.5%
$0.76 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
0.76$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$19.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.76, the base-case value is $12.92 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 110% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples