KUASF
Kuaishou Technology
$4.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.5% below fair value
You pay
$4.65
Bear
$9.01
Fair
$12.08
Bull
$15.17
Bear
$9.01
+93.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$12.08
+159.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$15.17
+226.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.4%
vs 10.9% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.08 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1490 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions