KUASF
Kuaishou Technology
$3.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.1% below fair value
You pay
$3.64
Bear
$8.89
Fair
$11.77
Bull
$14.62
Bear
$8.89
+144.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$11.77
+223.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$14.62
+301.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
5.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-9.3%
vs 10.4% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.77 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1498 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions