KTB
Kontoor Brands, Inc.
$75.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 81.8% below fair value
You pay
$75.08
Bear
$228.02
Fair
$411.69
Bull
$633.43
Bear
$228.02
+203.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$411.69
+448.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$633.43
+743.7%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.0%
vs 18.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$107.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
282%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $411.69 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $107.80 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 282% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions