KTB
Kontoor Brands, Inc.
$69.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 76.5% below fair value
You pay
$69.91
Bear
$163.95
Fair
$297.18
Bull
$458.04
Bear
$163.95
+134.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$297.18
+325.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$458.04
+555.2%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
9.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $77.20 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $297.18 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $77.20 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 380% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions