KTB
Kontoor Brands, Inc.
$66.62
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 83.6% below fair value
You pay
$66.62
Bear
$225.47
Fair
$407.08
Bull
$626.34
Bear
$225.47
+238.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$407.08
+511.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$626.34
+840.2%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
8.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.2%
vs 18.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$112.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
262%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $407.08 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $112.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 262% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions