KTB
Kontoor Brands, Inc.
$84.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.6% below fair value
You pay
$84.84
Bear
$164.89
Fair
$298.88
Bull
$460.66
Bear
$164.89
+94.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$298.88
+252.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$460.66
+443.0%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.7%
vs 18.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $298.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $84.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 341% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions