KRYS
Krystal Biotech, Inc.
$322.28
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.2% above fair value
You pay
$322.28
Bear
$153.53
Fair
$257.43
Bull
$387.91
Bear
$153.53
-52.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$257.43
-20.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$387.91
+20.4%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
58.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.3%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$395.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $257.43 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $395.20 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions