KRYS
Krystal Biotech, Inc.
$375.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.3% above fair value
You pay
$375.07
Bear
$165.30
Fair
$277.17
Bull
$417.66
Bear
$165.30
-55.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$277.17
-26.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$417.66
+11.4%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
69.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
25.5%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $336.40 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $277.17 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions