KNTK
Kinetik Holdings Inc.
$48.32
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.8% below fair value
You pay
$48.32
Bear
$55.04
Fair
$68.80
Bull
$82.56
Bear
$55.04
+13.9%
$3.32 × 18x P/E
Fair
$68.80
+42.4%
$3.32 × 22x P/E
Bull
$82.56
+70.9%
$3.32 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.40 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.80 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 121% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $51.40 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples