KNTK
Kinetik Holdings Inc.
$55.03
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.0% below fair value
You pay
$55.03
Bear
$47.34
Fair
$59.17
Bull
$71.01
Bear
$47.34
-14.0%
$2.63 × 18x P/E
Fair
$59.17
+7.5%
$2.63 × 22x P/E
Bull
$71.01
+29.0%
$2.63 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
2.63$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$55.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.63, the base-case value is $59.17 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 122% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples