KNTK Kinetik Holdings Inc.
$50.53
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 26.2% below fair value

You pay $50.53
Bear $54.76
Fair $68.45
Bull $82.14
Bear $54.76 +8.4% $3.32 × 18x P/E
Fair $68.45 +35.5% $3.32 × 22x P/E
Bull $82.14 +62.6% $3.32 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.45 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 121% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples