KNTK
Kinetik Holdings Inc.
$50.53
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.2% below fair value
You pay
$50.53
Bear
$54.76
Fair
$68.45
Bull
$82.14
Bear
$54.76
+8.4%
$3.32 × 18x P/E
Fair
$68.45
+35.5%
$3.32 × 22x P/E
Bull
$82.14
+62.6%
$3.32 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.45 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 121% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples