KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
$343.99
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.7% above fair value
You pay
$343.99
Bear
$260.48
Fair
$341.53
Bull
$341.53
Bear
$260.48
-24.3%
ROTCE 20.0% → 3.05x TBV
Fair
$341.53
-0.7%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$341.53
-0.7%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (27.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.32x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $433.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $341.53 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $433.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly