KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.
$365.59
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.3% above fair value
You pay
$365.59
Bear
$253.52
Fair
$322.64
Bull
$322.64
Bear
$253.52
-30.7%
ROTCE 20.0% → 3.14x TBV
Fair
$322.64
-11.7%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$322.64
-11.7%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
27.4%
9.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (27.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.53x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$447.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
With ROTCE of 27.4% vs. 9.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $80.66 tangible book, implying $322.64 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $447.80 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly