KNSA
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc
$86.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1176.3% above fair value
You pay
$86.08
Bear
$6.10
Fair
$6.74
Bull
$7.56
Bear
$6.10
-92.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$6.74
-92.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$7.56
-91.2%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
2573.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
78.8%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$86.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
92%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $86.40 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions