KN Knowles Corporation
$36.92
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 228.2% above fair value

You pay $36.92
Bear $9.00
Fair $11.25
Bull $13.50
Bear $9.00 -75.6% $0.50 × 18x P/E
Fair $11.25 -69.5% $0.50 × 22x P/E
Bull $13.50 -63.4% $0.50 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 73.8x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (15 analysts) $40.67
Divergence from AlphaVal 72%

Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.50, the base-case value is $11.25 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $40.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples