KN Knowles Corporation
$36.66
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 80.8% above fair value

You pay $36.66
Bear $16.22
Fair $20.27
Bull $24.33
Bear $16.22 -55.8% $0.63 × 18x P/E
Fair $20.27 -44.7% $0.63 × 22x P/E
Bull $24.33 -33.6% $0.63 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 58.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.27 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $38.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples