KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
$33.79
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.9% above fair value
You pay
$33.79
Bear
$20.49
Fair
$25.61
Bull
$30.74
Bear
$20.49
-39.4%
$1.43 × 12x P/E
Fair
$25.61
-24.2%
$1.43 × 15x P/E
Bull
$30.74
-9.0%
$1.43 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.61 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 86% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples