KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
$104.07
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% above fair value
You pay
$104.07
Bear
$85.66
Fair
$104.02
Bull
$122.38
Bear
$85.66
-17.7%
$6.07 × 14x P/E
Fair
$104.02
+-0.0%
$6.07 × 17x P/E
Bull
$122.38
+17.6%
$6.07 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.1x
6.07$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$117.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.07, the base-case value is $104.02 per share. DDM cross-check: $86.65.
Warnings
The company pays out 84% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples