KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
$108.99
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.2% above fair value
You pay
$108.99
Bear
$87.00
Fair
$105.65
Bull
$124.29
Bear
$87.00
-20.2%
$6.09 × 14x P/E
Fair
$105.65
-3.1%
$6.09 × 17x P/E
Bull
$124.29
+14.0%
$6.09 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $108.75 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $105.65 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 84% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples