KMB Kimberly-Clark Corporation
$99.14
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 4.8% below fair value

You pay $99.14
Bear $85.77
Fair $104.15
Bull $122.53
Bear $85.77 -13.5% $6.09 × 14x P/E
Fair $104.15 +5.1% $6.09 × 17x P/E
Bull $122.53 +23.6% $6.09 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.75 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.15 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 84% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples