KIM
Kimco Realty Corporation
$24.11
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.7% below fair value
You pay
$24.11
Bear
$42.33
Fair
$50.97
Bull
$59.61
Bear
$42.33
+75.6%
$1.79 FFO × 16x
Fair
$50.97
+111.4%
$1.79 FFO × 20x
Bull
$59.61
+147.2%
$1.79 FFO × 23x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.79) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.47 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.97 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $126.53 (103% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.47 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 155% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify