KIM
Kimco Realty Corporation
$23.65
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.5% below fair value
You pay
$23.65
Bear
$36.39
Fair
$44.23
Bull
$52.06
Bear
$36.39
+53.9%
$1.76 FFO × 16x
Fair
$44.23
+87.0%
$1.76 FFO × 20x
Bull
$52.06
+120.1%
$1.76 FFO × 23x
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.76) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$26.09
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
At $1.76 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $44.23 per share. Dividend yield: 4.5%. DDM cross-check: $67.35.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $67.35 (52% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.09 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 70% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify