KIDS
OrthoPediatrics Corp.
$20.33
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 286.2% above fair value
You pay
$20.33
Bear
$4.20
Fair
$5.26
Bull
$6.29
Bear
$4.20
-79.4%
$0.06 × 18x P/E
Fair
$5.26
-74.1%
$0.06 × 22x P/E
Bull
$6.29
-69.0%
$0.06 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
344.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.26 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples