KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company
$24.73
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.8% below fair value
You pay
$24.73
Bear
$26.74
Fair
$32.47
Bull
$38.20
Bear
$26.74
+8.1%
$1.91 × 14x P/E
Fair
$32.47
+31.3%
$1.91 × 17x P/E
Bull
$38.20
+54.5%
$1.91 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
1.91$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$24.38
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.91, the base-case value is $32.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $24.38 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples