KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company
$24.60
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.2% below fair value
You pay
$24.60
Bear
$26.74
Fair
$32.47
Bull
$38.20
Bear
$26.74
+8.7%
$1.91 × 14x P/E
Fair
$32.47
+32.0%
$1.91 × 17x P/E
Bull
$38.20
+55.3%
$1.91 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
1.91$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$22.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
43%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.91, the base-case value is $32.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $22.75 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples