KGSPY
Kingspan Group plc
$119.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 61.6% above fair value
You pay
$119.59
Bear
$43.00
Fair
$73.99
Bull
$108.30
Bear
$43.00
-64.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$73.99
-38.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$108.30
-9.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
41.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.7%
vs 15.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $73.99 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1625 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions