KGSPY
Kingspan Group plc
$106.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 49.5% above fair value
You pay
$106.59
Bear
$41.43
Fair
$71.28
Bull
$104.34
Bear
$41.43
-61.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$71.28
-33.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$104.34
-2.1%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
38.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.7%
vs 15.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $71.28 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1200 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions