KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
$47.16
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 95.6% above fair value
You pay
$47.16
Bear
$14.21
Fair
$24.12
Bull
$36.56
Bear
$14.21
-69.9%
FCF $148M × 10x
Fair
$24.12
-48.9%
FCF $191M × 13x
Bull
$36.56
-22.5%
FCF $234M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$79.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $24.12 per share. Range: $14.21 (bear) to $36.56 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $79.63 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential