KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
$62.59
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 159.1% above fair value
You pay
$62.59
Bear
$14.24
Fair
$24.16
Bull
$36.63
Bear
$14.24
-77.2%
FCF $148M × 10x
Fair
$24.16
-61.4%
FCF $191M × 13x
Bull
$36.63
-41.5%
FCF $234M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
33.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$82.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $24.16 per share. Range: $14.24 (bear) to $36.63 (bull).
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -77%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $82.86 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential