KEX
Kirby Corporation
$144.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.2% below fair value
You pay
$144.53
Bear
$102.51
Fair
$154.04
Bull
$206.71
Bear
$102.51
-29.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$154.04
+6.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$206.71
+43.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
22.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.8%
vs 11.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $151.33 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $154.04 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions