KEX
Kirby Corporation
$136.32
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.2% below fair value
You pay
$136.32
Bear
$114.33
Fair
$170.77
Bull
$228.46
Bear
$114.33
-16.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$170.77
+25.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$228.46
+67.6%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs 11.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$164.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $170.77 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions