KEEL
Keel Infrastructure Corp.
$6.03
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 109.9% above fair value
You pay
$6.03
Bear
$2.41
Fair
$2.87
Bull
$3.34
Bear
$2.41
-60.1%
$0.09 × 27x P/E
Fair
$2.87
-52.3%
$0.09 × 32x P/E
Bull
$3.34
-44.6%
$0.09 × 38x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
67.7x
Summary
Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $2.87 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples