KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$34.99
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.9% below fair value
You pay
$34.99
Bear
$30.58
Fair
$35.68
Bull
$40.77
Bear
$30.58
-12.6%
$1.53 × 20x P/E
Fair
$35.68
+2.0%
$1.53 × 23x P/E
Bull
$40.77
+16.5%
$1.53 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
23.3x
1.53$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$38.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Applying a 23x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.53, the base-case value is $35.68 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.66.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $22.66 (below our primary estimate by 36%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples