KAR
OPENLANE, Inc.
$27.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 62.9% below fair value
You pay
$27.44
Bear
$52.11
Fair
$74.04
Bull
$95.52
Bear
$52.11
+89.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$74.04
+169.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$95.52
+248.1%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.8%
vs 9.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
155%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $74.04 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $29.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 155% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions