KAI
Kadant Inc.
$263.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.9% below fair value
You pay
$263.34
Bear
$209.65
Fair
$295.45
Bull
$381.07
Bear
$209.65
-20.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$295.45
+12.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$381.07
+44.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.2%
vs 10.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$335.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
12%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $295.45 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions