K Kellanova
$83.44
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 12.7% above fair value

You pay $83.44
Bear $60.97
Fair $74.03
Bull $87.10
Bear $60.97 -26.9% $4.29 × 14x P/E
Fair $74.03 -11.3% $4.29 × 17x P/E
Bull $87.10 +4.4% $4.29 × 20x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $74.03 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.03 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples