K
Kellanova
$83.44
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 24.7% above fair value
You pay
$83.44
Bear
$55.10
Fair
$66.91
Bull
$78.72
Bear
$55.10
-34.0%
$3.88 × 14x P/E
Fair
$66.91
-19.8%
$3.88 × 17x P/E
Bull
$78.72
-5.7%
$3.88 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.2x
3.88$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$74.03
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.88, the base-case value is $66.91 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples