JXN
Jackson Financial Inc.
$106.95
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.5% below fair value
You pay
$106.95
Bear
$216.91
Fair
$309.87
Bull
$402.83
Bear
$216.91
+102.8%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$309.87
+189.7%
ROTCE 0.3% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$402.83
+276.7%
ROTCE 0.3% → 0.30x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (0.3%) vs. cost of equity (12.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.75x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $120.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $309.87 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.3%) is below the minimum investors require (12.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $120.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 198% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly