JXN
Jackson Financial Inc.
$129.71
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.4% above fair value
You pay
$129.71
Bear
$90.40
Fair
$129.14
Bull
$167.88
Bear
$90.40
-30.3%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$129.14
-0.4%
ROTCE 0.3% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$167.88
+29.4%
ROTCE 0.3% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
0.3%
11.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (0.3%) vs. cost of equity (11.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.91x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$142.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
With ROTCE of 0.3% vs. 11.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $142.71 tangible book, implying $129.14 per share. DDM cross-check: $286.78.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.3%) is below the minimum investors require (11.6%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $286.78 (122% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly