JRVR
James River Group Holdings, Ltd.
$4.58
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 83.3% below fair value
You pay
$4.58
Bear
$16.75
Fair
$27.46
Bull
$30.81
Bear
$16.75
+265.7%
ROTCE 8.3% → 2.17x TBV
Fair
$27.46
+499.7%
ROTCE 11.1% → 3.57x TBV
Bull
$30.81
+572.6%
ROTCE 12.8% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.88 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.46 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $5.88 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 459% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly