JRVR
James River Group Holdings, Ltd.
$4.03
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 87.7% below fair value
You pay
$4.03
Bear
$20.04
Fair
$32.86
Bull
$36.86
Bear
$20.04
+397.2%
ROTCE 8.3% → 2.17x TBV
Fair
$32.86
+715.3%
ROTCE 11.1% → 3.57x TBV
Bull
$36.86
+814.6%
ROTCE 12.8% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
11.1%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.44x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$4.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
722%
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.1% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.57x on $9.21 tangible book, implying $32.86 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $4.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 722% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly