JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
$306.38
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.0% above fair value
You pay
$306.38
Bear
$207.44
Fair
$303.29
Bull
$360.80
Bear
$207.44
-32.3%
ROTCE 14.4% → 1.75x TBV
Fair
$303.29
-1.0%
ROTCE 19.1% → 2.56x TBV
Bull
$360.80
+17.8%
ROTCE 22.0% → 3.04x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (19.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.76x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $338.78 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $303.29 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $439.85 (55% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly