JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
$348.21
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.7% above fair value
You pay
$348.21
Bear
$219.07
Fair
$320.30
Bull
$381.03
Bear
$219.07
-37.1%
ROTCE 14.4% → 1.82x TBV
Fair
$320.30
-8.0%
ROTCE 19.1% → 2.66x TBV
Bull
$381.03
+9.4%
ROTCE 22.0% → 3.16x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (19.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.13x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $366.50 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $320.30 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $518.96 (76% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly