JOUT
Johnson Outdoors Inc.
$45.24
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.5% above fair value
You pay
$45.24
Bear
$34.30
Fair
$42.87
Bull
$51.44
Bear
$34.30
-24.2%
$2.86 × 12x P/E
Fair
$42.87
-5.2%
$2.86 × 15x P/E
Bull
$51.44
+13.7%
$2.86 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.86$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.8x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.86, the base-case value is $42.87 per share. DDM cross-check: $21.51.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $21.51 (below our primary estimate by 50%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples