JOUT
Johnson Outdoors Inc.
$44.61
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.1% above fair value
You pay
$44.61
Bear
$34.30
Fair
$42.87
Bull
$51.44
Bear
$34.30
-23.1%
$2.86 × 12x P/E
Fair
$42.87
-3.9%
$2.86 × 15x P/E
Bull
$51.44
+15.3%
$2.86 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.86$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.6x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.86, the base-case value is $42.87 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.14.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $22.14 (below our primary estimate by 48%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples