JOUT
Johnson Outdoors Inc.
$45.99
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.2% below fair value
You pay
$45.99
Bear
$61.56
Fair
$76.95
Bull
$92.34
Bear
$61.56
+33.9%
$5.13 × 12x P/E
Fair
$76.95
+67.3%
$5.13 × 15x P/E
Bull
$92.34
+100.8%
$5.13 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.13, the base-case value is $76.95 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.14.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $22.14 (below our primary estimate by 71%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples