JOE
The St. Joe Company
$64.86
Stable Earnings Power
60%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 44.1% above fair value
You pay
$64.86
Bear
$36.00
Fair
$45.00
Bull
$54.00
Bear
$36.00
-44.5%
$2.00 × 18x P/E
Fair
$45.00
-30.6%
$2.00 × 22x P/E
Bull
$54.00
-16.7%
$2.00 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
2.0$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.4x
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.00, the base-case value is $45.00 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples