JMSB
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.
$23.37
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.7% below fair value
You pay
$23.37
Bear
$14.36
Fair
$28.74
Bull
$37.37
Bear
$14.36
-38.6%
ROTCE 6.0% → 0.76x TBV
Fair
$28.74
+23.0%
ROTCE 8.0% → 1.53x TBV
Bull
$37.37
+59.9%
ROTCE 9.2% → 1.99x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
8.0%
6.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.24x
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.0% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.53x on $18.82 tangible book, implying $28.74 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly