JMSB
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.
$21.06
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.2% below fair value
You pay
$21.06
Bear
$14.06
Fair
$28.15
Bull
$36.60
Bear
$14.06
-33.2%
ROTCE 6.0% → 0.75x TBV
Fair
$28.15
+33.6%
ROTCE 8.0% → 1.50x TBV
Bull
$36.60
+73.8%
ROTCE 9.2% → 1.94x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.12x
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.0% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.50x on $18.82 tangible book, implying $28.15 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly