JMSB
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.
$23.58
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.4% below fair value
You pay
$23.58
Bear
$14.27
Fair
$28.56
Bull
$37.13
Bear
$14.27
-39.5%
ROTCE 6.0% → 0.76x TBV
Fair
$28.56
+21.1%
ROTCE 8.0% → 1.52x TBV
Bull
$37.13
+57.5%
ROTCE 9.2% → 1.97x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.25x
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.0% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.52x on $18.82 tangible book, implying $28.56 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly