JKHY
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.
$150.32
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.4% above fair value
You pay
$150.32
Bear
$99.91
Fair
$124.89
Bull
$149.86
Bear
$99.91
-33.5%
$6.99 × 12x P/E
Fair
$124.89
-16.9%
$6.99 × 15x P/E
Bull
$149.86
-0.3%
$6.99 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $185.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $124.89 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $73.40 (below our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $185.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples