JKHY
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.
$140.19
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.1% above fair value
You pay
$140.19
Bear
$101.84
Fair
$127.29
Bull
$152.75
Bear
$101.84
-27.4%
$6.99 × 12x P/E
Fair
$127.29
-9.2%
$6.99 × 15x P/E
Bull
$152.75
+9.0%
$6.99 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $194.63 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $127.29 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $73.40 (below our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $194.63 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples