JKHY
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.
$149.31
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.6% above fair value
You pay
$149.31
Bear
$83.76
Fair
$104.70
Bull
$125.64
Bear
$83.76
-43.9%
$6.98 × 12x P/E
Fair
$104.70
-29.9%
$6.98 × 15x P/E
Bull
$125.64
-15.9%
$6.98 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.98$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$187.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.98, the base-case value is $104.70 per share. DDM cross-check: $72.86.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $72.86 (below our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $187.33 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples