JJSF
J&J Snack Foods Corp.
$81.85
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.5% above fair value
You pay
$81.85
Bear
$49.74
Fair
$60.40
Bull
$71.06
Bear
$49.74
-39.2%
$3.36 × 15x P/E
Fair
$60.40
-26.2%
$3.36 × 18x P/E
Bull
$71.06
-13.2%
$3.36 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
3.36$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$101.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.36, the base-case value is $60.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $88.92.
Warnings
The company pays out 95% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $88.92 (above our primary estimate by 47%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $101.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples