JHG
Janus Henderson Group plc
$51.95
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.8% below fair value
You pay
$51.95
Bear
$39.86
Fair
$56.94
Bull
$74.02
Bear
$39.86
-23.3%
ROTCE 20.0% → 2.09x TBV
Fair
$56.94
+9.6%
ROTCE 25.0% → 2.74x TBV
Bull
$74.02
+42.5%
ROTCE 30.0% → 3.39x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
70.8%
11.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (70.8%) vs. cost of equity (11.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$36.21
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
With ROTCE of 70.8% vs. 11.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.74x on $7.32 tangible book, implying $56.94 per share. DDM cross-check: $15.33.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $15.33 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.21 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 57% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly