JD
JD.com, Inc.
$30.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.2% below fair value
You pay
$30.95
Bear
$53.80
Fair
$67.51
Bull
$80.71
Bear
$53.80
+73.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$67.51
+118.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$80.71
+160.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
5.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-9.6%
vs 9.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.25 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.51 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $34.25 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 139% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1477 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions