JD
JD.com, Inc.
$30.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.4% below fair value
You pay
$30.52
Bear
$57.36
Fair
$75.23
Bull
$93.15
Bear
$57.36
+87.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$75.23
+146.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$93.15
+205.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
5.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.25 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.23 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $35.25 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 162% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1474 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions