JBTM
JBT Marel Corporation
$106.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.4% above fair value
You pay
$106.61
Bear
$54.63
Fair
$78.75
Bull
$101.38
Bear
$54.63
-48.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$78.75
-26.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$101.38
-4.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
23.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.3%
vs 8.3% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $78.75 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions