JBTM
JBT Marel Corporation
$133.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 100.0% above fair value
You pay
$133.09
Bear
$38.71
Fair
$66.55
Bull
$94.66
Bear
$38.71
-70.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$66.55
-50.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$94.66
-28.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
39.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.9%
vs 11.1% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $66.55 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions