JBSS
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
$67.00
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 25.1% below fair value
You pay
$67.00
Bear
$73.64
Fair
$89.42
Bull
$105.20
Bear
$73.64
+9.9%
$5.26 × 14x P/E
Fair
$89.42
+33.5%
$5.26 × 17x P/E
Bull
$105.20
+57.0%
$5.26 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
5.26$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.7x
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.26, the base-case value is $89.42 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 114% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples