JBL
Jabil Inc.
$281.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 50.8% above fair value
You pay
$281.22
Bear
$148.03
Fair
$186.51
Bull
$221.38
Bear
$148.03
-47.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$186.51
-33.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$221.38
-21.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
25.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.0%
vs 7.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$434.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $186.51 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $434.75 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions