JBL
Jabil Inc.
$319.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 44.3% above fair value
You pay
$319.72
Bear
$187.32
Fair
$221.64
Bull
$251.33
Bear
$187.32
-41.4%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$221.64
-30.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$251.33
-21.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
32.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.3%
vs 5.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $454.13 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $221.64 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $454.13 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions