JBL
Jabil Inc.
$364.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 97.9% above fair value
You pay
$364.35
Bear
$155.61
Fair
$184.12
Bull
$208.79
Bear
$155.61
-57.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$184.12
-49.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$208.79
-42.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
36.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $307.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $184.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $307.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions