JBL
Jabil Inc.
$310.57
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 82.6% above fair value
You pay
$310.57
Bear
$144.12
Fair
$170.12
Bull
$192.61
Bear
$144.12
-53.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$170.12
-45.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$192.61
-38.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
26.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.9%
vs 5.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$454.13
Divergence from AlphaVal
63%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $170.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $454.13 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions