AlphaMadera

JBI Janus International Group, Inc.

$4.89

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80%

Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 44.6% below fair value

You pay $4.89

Bear $6.86

Fair $8.82

Bull $10.78

Bear $6.86 +40.3% $0.49 × 14x

Fair $8.82 +80.4% $0.49 × 18x

Bull $10.78 +120.4% $0.49 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

0.49$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.49)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 10.0x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (8 analysts) $7.30

Divergence from AlphaVal 21%

Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.49 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $8.82 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing