JBI
Janus International Group, Inc.
$5.20
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.5% below fair value
You pay
$5.20
Bear
$5.41
Fair
$7.38
Bull
$9.35
Bear
$5.41
+4.1%
$0.49 × 14x + net cash
Fair
$7.38
+41.9%
$0.49 × 18x + net cash
Bull
$9.35
+79.8%
$0.49 × 22x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.49)
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.38 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing