JBI
Janus International Group, Inc.
$4.24
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.0% below fair value
You pay
$4.24
Bear
$6.86
Fair
$8.82
Bull
$10.78
Bear
$6.86
+62.0%
$0.49 × 14x
Fair
$8.82
+108.3%
$0.49 × 18x
Bull
$10.78
+154.5%
$0.49 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
0.49$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.49)
Implied Market Multiple
8.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$5.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.49 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $8.82 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $5.60 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing