JBHT
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
$226.03
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 146.2% above fair value
You pay
$226.03
Bear
$73.44
Fair
$91.80
Bull
$110.16
Bear
$73.44
-67.5%
$6.12 × 12x P/E
Fair
$91.80
-59.4%
$6.12 × 15x P/E
Bull
$110.16
-51.3%
$6.12 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.12$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$281.94
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.12, the base-case value is $91.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $42.13.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $42.13 (below our primary estimate by 54%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $281.94 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples