JBHT
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
$276.28
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 84.4% above fair value
You pay
$276.28
Bear
$119.87
Fair
$149.84
Bull
$179.82
Bear
$119.87
-56.6%
$6.18 × 12x P/E
Fair
$149.84
-45.8%
$6.18 × 15x P/E
Bull
$179.82
-34.9%
$6.18 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
44.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $283.14 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $149.84 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $60.64 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $283.14 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples