JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
$258.77
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 95.1% above fair value

You pay $258.77
Bear $106.12
Fair $132.64
Bull $159.18
Bear $106.12 -59.0% $6.18 × 12x P/E
Fair $132.64 -48.7% $6.18 × 15x P/E
Bull $159.18 -38.5% $6.18 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 41.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $225.82 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $132.64 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $60.64 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $225.82 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples