JBHT
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
$293.26
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 89.9% above fair value
You pay
$293.26
Bear
$123.52
Fair
$154.40
Bull
$185.29
Bear
$123.52
-57.9%
$6.18 × 12x P/E
Fair
$154.40
-47.4%
$6.18 × 15x P/E
Bull
$185.29
-36.8%
$6.18 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
47.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $298.33 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $154.40 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $60.64 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $298.33 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples