JBGS
JBG SMITH Properties
$10.92
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.1% below fair value
You pay
$10.92
Bear
$13.15
Fair
$15.85
Bull
$18.54
Bear
$13.15
+20.4%
$1.00 FFO × 14x
Fair
$15.85
+45.1%
$1.00 FFO × 17x
Bull
$18.54
+69.8%
$1.00 FFO × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.00) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$12.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
At $1.00 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $15.85 per share. Dividend yield: 6.4%. DDM cross-check: $13.05.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 50% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify