JBGS
JBG SMITH Properties
$14.51
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 121.7% above fair value
You pay
$14.51
Bear
$4.36
Fair
$6.55
Bull
$8.73
Bear
$4.36
-69.9%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$6.55
-54.9%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$8.73
-39.8%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.33 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.55 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($42.37) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.33 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case