JBGS
JBG SMITH Properties
$14.85
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.6% below fair value
You pay
$14.85
Bear
$14.51
Fair
$17.59
Bull
$20.65
Bear
$14.51
-2.3%
$0.88 FFO × 18x
Fair
$17.59
+18.4%
$0.88 FFO × 22x
Bull
$20.65
+39.0%
$0.88 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($0.88) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.33 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.59 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $13.05 (25% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify