JAZZ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc
$239.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.5% below fair value
You pay
$239.83
Bear
$228.21
Fair
$344.86
Bull
$465.45
Bear
$228.21
-4.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$344.86
+43.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$465.45
+94.1%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
16.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $255.25 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $344.86 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $255.25 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 50% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions