JAZZ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc
$247.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.6% below fair value
You pay
$247.53
Bear
$197.29
Fair
$296.92
Bull
$398.69
Bear
$197.29
-20.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$296.92
+20.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$398.69
+61.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.0%
vs 11.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $266.55 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $296.92 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions