JAZZ
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc
$222.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.4% below fair value
You pay
$222.45
Bear
$266.66
Fair
$414.65
Bull
$571.19
Bear
$266.66
+19.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$414.65
+86.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$571.19
+156.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
15.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.7%
vs 12.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (48 analysts)
$292.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
42%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $414.65 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $292.80 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 42% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions