JAKK
JAKKS Pacific, Inc.
$27.89
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.8% below fair value
You pay
$27.89
Bear
$37.68
Fair
$47.10
Bull
$56.52
Bear
$37.68
+35.1%
$3.14 × 12x P/E
Fair
$47.10
+68.8%
$3.14 × 15x P/E
Bull
$56.52
+102.6%
$3.14 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.14$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$41.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.14, the base-case value is $47.10 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 265%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 116% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples