JAKK
JAKKS Pacific, Inc.
$24.23
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.9% below fair value
You pay
$24.23
Bear
$41.14
Fair
$51.42
Bull
$61.71
Bear
$41.14
+69.8%
$3.65 × 12x P/E
Fair
$51.42
+112.2%
$3.65 × 15x P/E
Bull
$61.71
+154.7%
$3.65 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.67 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.42 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 324%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 116% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $41.67 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples