JACK
Jack in the Box Inc.
$16.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
25.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.3%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$17.35
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $17.35 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions