IVZ
Invesco Ltd.
$29.51
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.0% above fair value
You pay
$29.51
Bear
$16.52
Fair
$23.60
Bull
$30.68
Bear
$16.52
-44.0%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$23.60
-20.0%
ROTCE -2.3% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$30.68
+4.0%
ROTCE -2.6% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
-2.3%
13.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-2.3%) vs. cost of equity (13.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.07x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Summary
With ROTCE of -2.3% vs. 13.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $27.59 tangible book, implying $23.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.99.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-2.3%) is below the minimum investors require (13.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.99 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly