ITT
ITT Inc.
$198.18
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 37.8% below fair value
You pay
$198.18
Bear
$172.96
Fair
$318.57
Bull
$506.23
Bear
$172.96
-12.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$318.57
+60.8%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$506.23
+155.4%
27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
21.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
30.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.6%
vs 21.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$250.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $318.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $250.86 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions