ITT
ITT Inc.
$195.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.4% below fair value
You pay
$195.01
Bear
$153.35
Fair
$306.56
Bull
$518.30
Bear
$153.35
-21.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$306.56
+57.2%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$518.30
+165.8%
32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (25% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $243.33 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $306.56 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $243.33 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions