ITRI
Itron, Inc.
$87.73
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.0% below fair value
You pay
$87.73
Bear
$78.00
Fair
$97.50
Bull
$117.00
Bear
$78.00
-11.1%
$6.50 × 12x P/E
Fair
$97.50
+11.1%
$6.50 × 15x P/E
Bull
$117.00
+33.4%
$6.50 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.5$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$134.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.50, the base-case value is $97.50 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $134.75 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples