ITRI
Itron, Inc.
$85.99
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.9% below fair value
You pay
$85.99
Bear
$89.24
Fair
$111.55
Bull
$133.86
Bear
$89.24
+3.8%
$6.67 × 12x P/E
Fair
$111.55
+29.7%
$6.67 × 15x P/E
Bull
$133.86
+55.7%
$6.67 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $138.50 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $138.50 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples