ITRI Itron, Inc.
$83.02
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 25.3% below fair value

You pay $83.02
Bear $88.88
Fair $111.10
Bull $133.32
Bear $88.88 +7.1% $6.67 × 12x P/E
Fair $111.10 +33.8% $6.67 × 15x P/E
Bull $133.32 +60.6% $6.67 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $137.00 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.10 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $137.00 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples