IT
Gartner, Inc.
$218.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.8% below fair value
You pay
$218.93
Bear
$204.65
Fair
$242.78
Bull
$275.71
Bear
$204.65
-6.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$242.78
+10.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$275.71
+25.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
13.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.9%
vs 5.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$190.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $242.78 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $190.29 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions