IT
Gartner, Inc.
$134.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.2% below fair value
You pay
$134.12
Bear
$168.91
Fair
$200.76
Bull
$228.27
Bear
$168.91
+25.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$200.76
+49.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$228.27
+70.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.1%
vs 5.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $173.10 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $200.76 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions