IT
Gartner, Inc.
$160.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.7% below fair value
You pay
$160.01
Bear
$169.67
Fair
$201.66
Bull
$229.29
Bear
$169.67
+6.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$201.66
+26.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$229.29
+43.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
11.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $176.70 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $201.66 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions