ISRG
Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
$428.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 113.1% above fair value
You pay
$428.12
Bear
$124.36
Fair
$200.86
Bull
$292.43
Bear
$124.36
-71.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$200.86
-53.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$292.43
-31.7%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
76.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
29.1%
vs 18.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (57 analysts)
$485.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $200.86 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $485.44 (from 57 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions