IRWD Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$3.92
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 50.4% below fair value

You pay $3.92
Bear $6.78
Fair $7.91
Bull $9.04
Bear $6.78 +72.9% $0.66 × 12x P/E
Fair $7.91 +101.7% $0.66 × 14x P/E
Bull $9.04 +130.6% $0.66 × 16x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $4.80 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.91 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 340%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $4.80 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 93% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples