IREN
IREN Limited
$27.73
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 229.7% above fair value
You pay
$27.73
Bear
$0.11
Fair
$8.41
Bull
$15.09
Bear
$0.11
-99.6%
18% rev growth, 14% terminal margin
Fair
$8.41
-69.7%
30% rev growth, 18% terminal margin
Bull
$15.09
-45.6%
35% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
18.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 18%
Terminal Value % of EV
69%
Implied Market Multiple
16.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$81.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 0% to 18% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $8.41 per share.
Warnings
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 18% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Wall Street's average price target is $81.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 64% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep