IR
Ingersoll Rand Inc.
$70.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.8% above fair value
You pay
$70.91
Bear
$46.39
Fair
$63.40
Bull
$79.58
Bear
$46.39
-34.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$63.40
-10.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$79.58
+12.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.40 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $96.40 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions