IR
Ingersoll Rand Inc.
$74.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 32.8% above fair value
You pay
$74.95
Bear
$43.13
Fair
$56.42
Bull
$68.71
Bear
$43.13
-42.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$56.42
-24.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$68.71
-8.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
23.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.0%
vs 7.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$92.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $56.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $92.40 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions