IR
Ingersoll Rand Inc.
$72.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.0% above fair value
You pay
$72.93
Bear
$45.49
Fair
$61.83
Bull
$77.39
Bear
$45.49
-37.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$61.83
-15.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$77.39
+6.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
22.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.8%
vs 8.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$90.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $61.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $90.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions