IR
Ingersoll Rand Inc.
$83.54
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 39.2% above fair value
You pay
$83.54
Bear
$44.89
Fair
$60.02
Bull
$74.15
Bear
$44.89
-46.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$60.02
-28.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$74.15
-11.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
29.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.3%
vs 8.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $92.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.02 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $92.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions