INVX
Innovex International, Inc.
$30.05
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 84.3% above fair value
You pay
$30.05
Bear
$10.21
Fair
$16.30
Bull
$23.97
Bear
$10.21
-66.0%
FCF $62M × 10x
Fair
$16.30
-45.7%
FCF $80M × 13x
Bull
$23.97
-20.2%
FCF $98M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.8x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $16.30 per share. Range: $10.21 (bear) to $23.97 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential