INVX
Innovex International, Inc.
$28.06
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 71.4% above fair value
You pay
$28.06
Bear
$10.24
Fair
$16.37
Bull
$24.07
Bear
$10.24
-63.5%
FCF $63M × 10x
Fair
$16.37
-41.7%
FCF $82M × 13x
Bull
$24.07
-14.2%
FCF $100M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.0x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $16.37 per share. Range: $10.24 (bear) to $24.07 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential