INVA
Innoviva, Inc.
$20.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.4% below fair value
You pay
$20.74
Bear
$50.89
Fair
$72.39
Bull
$94.95
Bear
$50.89
+145.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$72.39
+249.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$94.95
+357.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-6.9%
vs 12.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $72.39 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $38.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 90% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions